HUNTING IN THE SHADOWS

A sweeping, insider's account of the decade-long chase for our deadliest enemy, Hunting in the Shadows, from one of the West's most trusted counterterrorism experts.

This comprehensive, landmark history chronicles our ongoing battle against al-Qa'ida, the greatest threat the West has faced in the modern era. An internationally recognized authority on terrorism and counterinsurgency, Seth G. Jones presents a dramatic narrative of the on-the-ground police work; the elaborate, multiyear investigations led by the CIA, FBI, and Britain's MI5; and the shifting and deadly alliances between terrorist groups that have characterized the conflict. With gripping detail he recounts the against-the-clock hunt for the Times Square bomber and reveals startling information about Osama bin Laden's behavior during his final days. Drawing on recently declassified documents and court materials, transcripts of wiretapped conversations, and interviews with current and former government officials from the United States and key allies, Jones navigates the "waves" (al Qa'ida attacks) and "reverse waves" (successful efforts to disrupt al'Qa'ida), explaining how we might analyze past patterns in order to successfully counter al Qa'ida and its allies in the future. Jones studied the number of people killed in every Al Qa'ida terrorist attack worldwide going back to the founding of the organization in 1988. He's discovered that whenever Al Qa'ida begins to kill a large number of people (a "wave" of terror) they are soon disrupted by international law enforcement (a "counter-wave"). The first wave crested on 9/11; soon thereafter the Taliban was defeated and the group fled to Pakistan and Iran. The second wave was the period of 2004-2006 (London, Madrid, etc) and was knocked back by an evolving and adaptive security program and the loss of local support among the Muslim population. The third wave was inspired by Anwar Awlaki and has been defeated by the drone strike program and the promise of the Arab Spring. Oddly enough, the relationship between the waves and incidental violence works both ways. Nothing did more to provoke Al Qa'ida second wave than the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As he has learned, the entire evolution of the struggle with Al Qa'ida hinges on violence, but not on the violence we do each other - it's actually the violence done to civilians. It's a war in which the side which kills the most people is the side that loses. In his conclusion, Jones explains the factors that create terror hotspots, the places from which a possible "fourth wave" might develop. He'll discuss what confluence of factors causes a hotspot, and will articulate what the strategy should be once a hotspot develops.